Replicability Rankings 2010-2020

Welcome to the replicability rankings for 120 psychology journals. More information about the statistical method that is used to create the replicability rankings can be found elsewhere (Z-Curve; Video Tutorial; Talk; Examples). The rankings are based on automated extraction of test statistics from all articles published in these 120 journals from 2010 to 2020 (data). The results can be reproduced with the R-package zcurve.

To give a brief explanation of the method, I use the journal with the highest ranking and the journal with the lowest ranking as examples. Figure 1 shows the z-curve plot for the 2nd highest ranking journal for the year 2020 (the Journal of Organizational Psychology is ranked #1, but it has very few test statistics). Plots for all journals that include additional information and information about test statistics are available by clicking on the journal name. Plots for previous years can be found on the site for the 2010-2019 rankings (previous rankings).

To create the z-curve plot in Figure 1, the 361 test statistics were first transformed into exact p-values that were then transformed into absolute z-scores. Thus, each value represents the deviation from zero for a standard normal distribution. A value of 1.96 (solid red line) corresponds to the standard criterion for significance, p = .05 (two-tailed). The dashed line represents the treshold for marginal significance, p = .10 (two-tailed). A z-curve analysis fits a finite mixture model to the distribution of the significant z-scores (the blue density distribution on the right side of the solid red line). The distribution provides information about the average power of studies that produced a significant result. As power determines the success rate in future studies, power after selection for significance is used to estimate replicability. For the present data, the z-curve estimate of the replication rate is 84%. The bootstrapped 95% confidence interval around this estimate ranges from 75% to 92%. Thus, we would expect the majority of these significant results to replicate.

However, the graph also shows some evidence that questionable research practices produce too many significant results. The observed discovery rate (i.e., the percentage of p-values below .05) is 82%. This is outside of the 95%CI of the estimated discovery rate which is represented by the grey line in the range of non-significant results; EDR = .31%, 95%CI = 18% to 81%. We see that there are fewer results reported than z-curve predicts. This finding casts doubt about the replicability of the just significant p-values. The replicability rankings ignore this problem, which means that the predicted success rates are overly optimistic. A more pessimistic predictor of the actual success rate is the EDR. However, the ERR still provides useful information to compare power of studies across journals and over time.

Figure 2 shows a journal with a low ERR in 2020.

The estimated replication rate is 64%, with a 95%CI ranging from 55% to 73%. The 95%CI does not overlap with the 95%CI for the Journal of Sex Research, indicating that this is a significant difference in replicability. Visual inspection also shows clear evidence for the use of questionable research practices with a lot more results that are just significant than results that are not significant. The observed discovery rate of 75% is inflated and outside the 95%CI of the EDR that ranges from 10% to 56%.

To examine time trends, I regressed the ERR of each year on the year and computed the predicted values and 95%CI. Figure 3 shows the results for the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science as an example (x = 0 is 2010, x = 1 is 2020). The upper bound of the 95%CI for 2010, 62%, is lower than the lower bound of the 95%CI for 2020, 74%.

This shows a significant difference with alpha = .01. I use alpha = .01 so that only 1.2 out of the 120 journals are expected to show a significant change in either direction by chance alone. There are 22 journals with a significant increase in the ERR and no journals with a significant decrease. This shows that about 20% of these journals have responded to the crisis of confidence by publishing studies with higher power that are more likely to replicate.

Rank  JournalObserved 2020Predicted 2020Predicted 2010
1Journal of Organizational Psychology88 [69 ; 99]84 [75 ; 93]73 [64 ; 81]
2Journal of Sex Research84 [75 ; 92]84 [74 ; 93]75 [65 ; 84]
3Evolution & Human Behavior84 [74 ; 93]83 [77 ; 90]62 [56 ; 68]
4Judgment and Decision Making81 [74 ; 88]83 [77 ; 89]68 [62 ; 75]
5Personality and Individual Differences81 [76 ; 86]81 [78 ; 83]68 [65 ; 71]
6Addictive Behaviors82 [75 ; 89]81 [77 ; 86]71 [67 ; 75]
7Depression & Anxiety84 [76 ; 91]81 [77 ; 85]67 [63 ; 71]
8Cognitive Psychology83 [75 ; 90]81 [76 ; 87]71 [65 ; 76]
9Social Psychological and Personality Science85 [78 ; 92]81 [74 ; 89]54 [46 ; 62]
10Journal of Experimental Psychology – General80 [75 ; 85]80 [79 ; 81]67 [66 ; 69]
11J. of Exp. Psychology – Learning, Memory & Cognition81 [75 ; 87]80 [77 ; 84]73 [70 ; 77]
12Journal of Memory and Language79 [73 ; 86]80 [76 ; 83]73 [69 ; 77]
13Cognitive Development81 [75 ; 88]80 [75 ; 85]67 [62 ; 72]
14Sex Roles81 [74 ; 88]80 [75 ; 85]72 [67 ; 77]
15Developmental Psychology74 [67 ; 81]80 [75 ; 84]67 [63 ; 72]
16Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology77 [65 ; 90]80 [73 ; 86]74 [68 ; 81]
17Journal of Nonverbal Behavior73 [59 ; 84]80 [68 ; 91]65 [53 ; 77]
18Memory and Cognition81 [73 ; 87]79 [77 ; 81]75 [73 ; 77]
19Cognition79 [74 ; 84]79 [76 ; 82]70 [68 ; 73]
20Psychology and Aging81 [74 ; 87]79 [75 ; 84]74 [69 ; 79]
21Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology83 [76 ; 91]79 [75 ; 83]75 [71 ; 79]
22Psychonomic Bulletin and Review79 [72 ; 86]79 [75 ; 83]71 [67 ; 75]
23Journal of Experimental Social Psychology78 [73 ; 84]79 [75 ; 82]52 [48 ; 55]
24JPSP-Attitudes & Social Cognition82 [75 ; 88]79 [69 ; 89]55 [45 ; 65]
25European Journal of Developmental Psychology75 [64 ; 86]79 [68 ; 91]74 [62 ; 85]
26Journal of Business and Psychology82 [71 ; 91]79 [68 ; 90]74 [63 ; 85]
27Psychology of Religion and Spirituality79 [71 ; 88]79 [66 ; 92]72 [59 ; 85]
28J. of Exp. Psychology – Human Perception and Performance79 [73 ; 84]78 [77 ; 80]75 [73 ; 77]
29Attention, Perception and Psychophysics77 [72 ; 82]78 [75 ; 82]73 [70 ; 76]
30Psychophysiology79 [74 ; 84]78 [75 ; 82]66 [62 ; 70]
31Psychological Science77 [72 ; 84]78 [75 ; 82]57 [54 ; 61]
32Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology81 [75 ; 86]78 [75 ; 81]72 [69 ; 74]
33Journal of Child and Family Studies80 [73 ; 87]78 [74 ; 82]67 [63 ; 70]
34JPSP-Interpersonal Relationships and Group Processes81 [74 ; 88]78 [73 ; 82]53 [49 ; 58]
35Journal of Behavioral Decision Making77 [70 ; 86]78 [72 ; 84]66 [60 ; 72]
36Appetite78 [73 ; 84]78 [72 ; 83]72 [67 ; 78]
37Journal of Comparative Psychology79 [65 ; 91]78 [71 ; 85]68 [61 ; 75]
38Journal of Religion and Health77 [57 ; 94]78 [70 ; 87]75 [67 ; 84]
39Aggressive Behaviours82 [74 ; 90]78 [70 ; 86]70 [62 ; 78]
40Journal of Health Psychology74 [64 ; 82]78 [70 ; 86]72 [64 ; 80]
41Journal of Social Psychology78 [70 ; 87]78 [70 ; 86]69 [60 ; 77]
42Law and Human Behavior81 [71 ; 90]78 [69 ; 87]70 [61 ; 78]
43Psychological Medicine76 [68 ; 85]78 [66 ; 89]74 [63 ; 86]
44Political Psychology73 [59 ; 85]78 [65 ; 92]59 [46 ; 73]
45Acta Psychologica81 [75 ; 88]77 [74 ; 81]73 [70 ; 76]
46Experimental Psychology73 [62 ; 83]77 [73 ; 82]73 [68 ; 77]
47Archives of Sexual Behavior77 [69 ; 83]77 [73 ; 81]78 [74 ; 82]
48British Journal of Psychology73 [65 ; 81]77 [72 ; 82]74 [68 ; 79]
49Journal of Cognitive Psychology77 [69 ; 84]77 [72 ; 82]74 [69 ; 78]
50Journal of Experimental Psychology – Applied82 [75 ; 88]77 [72 ; 82]70 [65 ; 76]
51Asian Journal of Social Psychology79 [66 ; 89]77 [70 ; 84]70 [63 ; 77]
52Journal of Youth and Adolescence80 [71 ; 89]77 [70 ; 84]72 [66 ; 79]
53Memory77 [71 ; 84]77 [70 ; 83]71 [65 ; 77]
54European Journal of Social Psychology82 [75 ; 89]77 [69 ; 84]61 [53 ; 69]
55Social Psychology81 [73 ; 90]77 [67 ; 86]73 [63 ; 82]
56Perception82 [74 ; 88]76 [72 ; 81]78 [74 ; 83]
57Journal of Anxiety Disorders80 [71 ; 89]76 [72 ; 80]71 [67 ; 75]
58Personal Relationships65 [54 ; 76]76 [68 ; 84]62 [54 ; 70]
59Evolutionary Psychology63 [51 ; 75]76 [67 ; 85]77 [68 ; 86]
60Journal of Research in Personality63 [46 ; 77]76 [67 ; 84]70 [61 ; 79]
61Cognitive Behaviour Therapy88 [73 ; 99]76 [66 ; 86]68 [58 ; 79]
62Emotion79 [73 ; 85]75 [72 ; 79]67 [64 ; 71]
63Animal Behavior79 [72 ; 87]75 [71 ; 80]68 [64 ; 73]
64Group Processes & Intergroup Relations80 [73 ; 87]75 [71 ; 80]60 [56 ; 65]
65JPSP-Personality Processes and Individual Differences78 [70 ; 86]75 [70 ; 79]64 [59 ; 69]
66Psychology of Men and Masculinity88 [77 ; 96]75 [64 ; 87]78 [67 ; 89]
67Consciousness and Cognition74 [67 ; 80]74 [69 ; 80]67 [62 ; 73]
68Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin78 [72 ; 84]74 [69 ; 79]57 [52 ; 62]
69Journal of Cognition and Development70 [60 ; 80]74 [67 ; 81]65 [59 ; 72]
70Journal of Applied Psychology69 [59 ; 78]74 [67 ; 80]73 [66 ; 79]
71European Journal of Personality80 [67 ; 92]74 [65 ; 83]70 [61 ; 79]
72Journal of Positive Psychology75 [65 ; 86]74 [65 ; 83]66 [57 ; 75]
73Journal of Research on Adolescence83 [74 ; 92]74 [62 ; 87]67 [55 ; 79]
74Psychopharmacology75 [69 ; 80]73 [71 ; 75]67 [65 ; 69]
75Frontiers in Psychology75 [70 ; 79]73 [70 ; 76]72 [69 ; 75]
76Cognitive Therapy and Research73 [66 ; 81]73 [68 ; 79]67 [62 ; 73]
77Behaviour Research and Therapy70 [63 ; 77]73 [67 ; 79]70 [64 ; 76]
78Journal of Educational Psychology82 [73 ; 89]73 [67 ; 79]76 [70 ; 82]
79British Journal of Social Psychology74 [65 ; 83]73 [66 ; 81]61 [54 ; 69]
80Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes70 [65 ; 77]72 [69 ; 75]67 [63 ; 70]
81Cognition and Emotion75 [68 ; 81]72 [68 ; 76]72 [68 ; 76]
82Journal of Affective Disorders75 [69 ; 83]72 [68 ; 76]74 [71 ; 78]
83Behavioural Brain Research76 [71 ; 80]72 [67 ; 76]70 [66 ; 74]
84Child Development81 [75 ; 88]72 [66 ; 78]68 [62 ; 74]
85Journal of Abnormal Psychology71 [60 ; 82]72 [66 ; 77]65 [60 ; 71]
86Journal of Vocational Behavior70 [59 ; 82]72 [65 ; 79]84 [77 ; 91]
87Journal of Experimental Child Psychology72 [66 ; 78]71 [69 ; 74]72 [69 ; 75]
88Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology81 [73 ; 88]71 [64 ; 78]62 [55 ; 69]
89Psychology of Music78 [67 ; 86]71 [64 ; 78]79 [72 ; 86]
90Behavior Therapy78 [69 ; 86]71 [63 ; 78]70 [63 ; 78]
91Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology66 [51 ; 79]71 [62 ; 80]87 [79 ; 96]
92Journal of Happiness Studies75 [65 ; 83]71 [61 ; 81]79 [70 ; 89]
93Journal of Occupational Health Psychology77 [65 ; 90]71 [58 ; 83]65 [52 ; 77]
94Journal of Individual Differences77 [62 ; 92]71 [51 ; 90]74 [55 ; 94]
95Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience70 [63 ; 76]70 [66 ; 75]66 [62 ; 71]
96Journal of Applied Social Psychology76 [67 ; 84]70 [63 ; 76]70 [64 ; 77]
97British Journal of Developmental Psychology72 [62 ; 81]70 [62 ; 79]76 [67 ; 85]
98Journal of Social and Personal Relationships73 [63 ; 81]70 [60 ; 79]69 [60 ; 79]
99Behavioral Neuroscience65 [57 ; 73]69 [64 ; 75]69 [63 ; 75]
100Psychology and Marketing71 [64 ; 77]69 [64 ; 74]67 [63 ; 72]
101Journal of Family Psychology71 [59 ; 81]69 [63 ; 75]62 [56 ; 68]
102Journal of Personality71 [57 ; 85]69 [62 ; 77]64 [57 ; 72]
103Journal of Consumer Behaviour70 [60 ; 81]69 [59 ; 79]73 [63 ; 83]
104Motivation and Emotion78 [70 ; 86]69 [59 ; 78]66 [57 ; 76]
105Developmental Science67 [60 ; 74]68 [65 ; 71]65 [63 ; 68]
106International Journal of Psychophysiology67 [61 ; 73]68 [64 ; 73]64 [60 ; 69]
107Self and Identity80 [72 ; 87]68 [60 ; 76]70 [62 ; 78]
108Journal of Counseling Psychology57 [41 ; 71]68 [55 ; 81]79 [66 ; 92]
109Health Psychology63 [50 ; 73]67 [62 ; 72]67 [61 ; 72]
110Hormones and Behavior67 [58 ; 73]66 [63 ; 70]66 [62 ; 70]
111Frontiers in Human Neuroscience68 [62 ; 75]66 [62 ; 70]76 [72 ; 80]
112Annals of Behavioral Medicine63 [53 ; 75]66 [60 ; 71]71 [65 ; 76]
113Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry and Allied Disciplines58 [45 ; 69]66 [55 ; 76]63 [53 ; 73]
114Infancy77 [69 ; 85]65 [56 ; 73]58 [50 ; 67]
115Biological Psychology64 [58 ; 70]64 [61 ; 67]66 [63 ; 69]
116Social Development63 [54 ; 73]64 [56 ; 72]74 [66 ; 82]
117Developmental Psychobiology62 [53 ; 70]63 [58 ; 68]67 [62 ; 72]
118Journal of Consumer Research59 [53 ; 67]63 [55 ; 71]58 [50 ; 66]
119Psychoneuroendocrinology63 [53 ; 72]62 [58 ; 66]61 [57 ; 65]
120Journal of Consumer Psychology64 [55 ; 73]62 [57 ; 67]60 [55 ; 65]

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