False Positive Causality: Putting Traits into Causal Models of Panel Data

Poster presented at the virtual conference of the Association for Personality Research (ARP), July 16, 2021.

For a more detailed critique, see “Why most cross-lagged-panel models are false” (R-Index, August, 22, 2020).


Anusic, I., & Schimmack, U. (2016). Stability and change of personality traits, self-esteem, and well-being: Introducing the meta-analytic stability and change model of retest correlations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 110(5), 766-781. 

Campbell, D. T. (1963). From description to experimentation:
Interpreting trends as quasi-experiments. In C. W. Harris (Ed.), Problems in measuring
change. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.

Hamaker, E. L., Kuiper, R. M., & Grasman, R. P. P. P. (2015). A critique of the cross-lagged panel model. Psychological Methods, 20(1), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0038889

Heise, D. R. (1970). Causal inference from panel data. Sociological Methodology,
, 3–27.

Kenny, D. A., & Zautra, A. (1995). The trait-state-error model for multiwave data. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63(1), 52–59. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.63.1.52

Orth, U., Clark, D. A., Donnellan, M. B., & Robins, R. W. (2021). Testing prospective effects in longitudinal research: Comparing seven competing cross-lagged models. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 120(4), 1013-1034. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000358

Orth, U., Robins, R. W., & Roberts, B. W. (2008). Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95, 695–708. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.95.3.695

Pelz, D. C., & Andrews, F. (1964). Detecting causal priorities in panel study data, American Sociological Review, 29, 836-848.

1 thought on “False Positive Causality: Putting Traits into Causal Models of Panel Data

Leave a Reply